UFC Vegas 117 Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Allen vs. Costa

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Vegas 117. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs. Costa, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs. Costa Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Shauna Bannon vs. Nicole Caliari

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Bannon	Eligible
Caliari	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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We’ll see if a move down to 115 can get Nicole Caliari pointed in the right direction.

Caliari’s last pair of fights weren’t ideal, ceding massive size and reach to both Ernesta Kareckaite and Carli Judice. At 5’5″, she’ll be at home in this new division and can, hopefully, land a higher rate than 24% of her 12.00 takedowns per 15 minutes attempted. At distance, it’s worth noting that the Brazilian’s striking defense (53%) has not been bad at all considering the poor distance matchups she’s had since a Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) win by first-round submission.

On the other hand, the preferential treatment for Shauna Bannon also ends here in earnest. All four of the Irishwoman’s appearances came in Europe before this voyage to the Apex, where she’ll look to shake off a second-round loss to Sam Hughes last fall.”Mama B” is a kickboxer whose striking success rate (+0.57 SSR) is fine, but her striking accuracy (43%) and defense (45%) are not. That’s a similar statistical profile I brought up with a durable Djorden Santos last week.

Though Bannon used entry-level jiu-jitsu to submit the highly submittable Puja Tomar, I wouldn’t call it a strength, and her 40% takedown D is a massive liability in this fight when Caliari has proven to be pretty darn durable against successful flyweights.

Caliari’s grappling advantage here is mighty, and that typically decides these 115-pound bouts where power is rare. I have a feeling this will be her best performance in the octagon thus far.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is an ideal spot to deploy Caliari’s -3.5 point spread (+110), which cashes whether she finds a submission as Hughes did or smothers her for three rounds. It’d be pretty shocking if she couldn’t replicate that result.

Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Barez	51.74%	21.56%	12.03%	9.53%	30.18%
Gurule	48.26%	18.88%	5.14%	13.74%	29.38%

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Inconsistent flyweights are, realistically, battling for a roster spot here. We’ll see if Daniel Barez or Luis Gurule does a better job staving off the roster reaper.

There aren’t many places to hide in this division, which Barez has learned quickly. He’s drawn the slick jiu-jitsu skills of Andre Lima and Jafel Filho in his two losses but snuck by Victor Altamirano (2-4 UFC) with a timely knockdown in 2024. The Spaniard throws nice kicks and has shown a willingness to mix things up, attempting 6.89 takedowns per 15 minutes. I really didn’t remember it being that high.

It feels like Gurule has been playing with house money since the regional vet beat a highly accomplished wrestling prospect, Nick Piccinnini, on DWCS, but he’s spent nearly all that house money to this point. His 0-3 record started with a (T)KO loss to Ode Osbourne, and he’s been outworked by Jesus Aguilar and Alden Coria in consecutive fights. The Coria effort (-29 striking differential) was probably an overperformance compared to expectations.

Gurule’s identity just isn’t super clear. From Factory X in Denver, he’s got a striking background with the gym’s patented low kicks, but his takedown D (58%) lags well behind the gym’s best entrants, and he doesn’t really have the submission danger to bring those warts of Barez to the surface.

I actually believe Barez will look to mix it up, which should help leverage his natural striking advantages in size, power, and reach. Other than squeaking out a decision with more volume on the cards, I don’t know how Gurule wins UFC fights yet at a pick ’em price.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I really don’t get the late-week movement toward Gurule. I see his ceiling in this bout as outpointing Barez to a split decision. While wiltly and a bit fragile, I played Barez (+100) at a bad number on Monday and doubled down with decision (+310) on Friday.

Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Ardelean	60.66%	20.62%	8.37%	12.25%	40.04%
Viana	39.34%	22.84%	4.95%	17.89%	16.49%

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There is no fighter who has surprised more at women’s 115 than Alice Ardelean.

Best known as a TikTok creator prior to 2024, Ardelean was an emergency signing to keep Shauna Bannon on a numbered card in London, and she took the local favorite to a split decision. She probably beat Melissa Martinez if a +20 striking differential was any indication. Plus, she’s gotten her hand raised for real in two dominant efforts over Rayanne dos Santos and Montserrat Ruiz. Those two’s combined 1-7 record does leave some questions to be answered, though.

In that sense, Polyana Viana (4-7 UFC) is a step up, but a browse through Viana’s hit list is from a prior (and frighteningly poor) era of this division’s entry level, including wins to this point over Jinh Yu Frey and Mallory Martin. “Dama de Farro” seems to be leaning back into her Brazilian roots, with a primary camp in Chute Box since her last appearance in April 2025, when she was submitted by Jacqueline Amorim.

Viana, oddly, has lived and died by the grappling sword. Three of her four wins are submissions. Three of her seven losses are submissions. I think she does have a pure BJJ edge over Ardelean, who hasn’t faced an attempt yet. There’s your formula for an upset.

However, if Ardelean has the basics down, Viana’s 35% takedown D and tendency to play off her back is a nightmare when she’s also, per Ardelean’s +2.15 SSR, likely at a striking deficit. Laying this substantial of chalk given the names and level of competition at hand is probably unwise, but there’s a reason MMA’s meme queen is favored.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I love Alice. I really do. But, this is the exact type of jiu-jitsu matchup where some of her regional warts could easily surface. Plus, Viana carries power in her hands. My gut feeling is Viana is much improved from the layoff and finds a finish, but I only played submission (+550) and that the fight, in general, doesn’t go the distance (+145).

Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Brundage	38.96%	22.78%	15.80%	6.98%	16.18%
Petroski	61.04%	35.40%	14.26%	21.14%	25.65%

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Truly, nothing can be off the table when these two goobers match up. I can’t believe Cody Brundage is still here and, conversely, has a real chance to win this weekend.

Brundage — renowned for acting his way to wins or no-contests in three different fights — has more talent than we’re likely giving him credit for, but there are fight-winning tools. His 1.11% knockdown rate (KD%) is massive. He’s got modest takedown defense (68%) — especially when fresh. It’s kind of hard to remember he’s won five times in UFC, and there are scheduled Ls — like Bo Nickal, Cam Rowston, and Michal Oleksiejczuk — that make his record more forgiving with hindsight.

Importantly, he might have gotten robbed in his last fight as a mammoth underdog to athletic prospect Donte Johnson. Is this a buy-low spot? Probably not since Andre Petroski has dropped consecutive fights himself.

Petroski’s grappling chops are no joke, which is how you arrive at an 8-4 UFC record despite virtually no standup success (+0.02 SSR). He’s also been dropped in three of his four losses. Yet, it sort of feels like he’s underperformed his ground capabilities without a submission win since 2022.

I find this fight captivating. Brundage’s fresh power opposite Petroski’s chin means you really do have to favor him to win Round 1. However, if Petroski can get him down and sap his gas tank, the Coloradan is one of the roster’s most notable wilters. Of the eight combined Round 2 or Round 3s he’s participated in since the start of 2022, he’s lost every single one of them.

Is violence the play? Well, no, both of these guys have a bad habit of sloppy, sweaty decisions, too. There are a lot of different outcomes on the table here that I needed to parse through to find a favorite angle.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Petroski could be shining bright if Brundage is exhausted on the stool after five minutes, but his improved longevity in the Johnson fight leads me to believe that Brundage (+180) can either find the early bonk or make moments count on the feet to win a decision.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Vieira	47.67%	10.47%	0.62%	9.85%	37.20%
Cavalcanti	52.33%	8.01%	5.21%	2.80%	44.32%

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Can the Jacqueline Cavalcanti money train keep rolling?

Cavalcanti has averaged roughly a -400 moneyline in five starts, but that doesn’t matter for the public. No probabilities. No math. No cares. She’s won all five by decision, prop close enough to even money to absolutely print, and it has bettors wondering if it’ll ever crash in a weak women’s bantamweight division.

The Portuguese fighter is a skilled striker, dominating a terrible level of competition (14-20-1, 1 NC combined opponent record) for a +2.48 SSR. I’m not saying she doesn’t have a spot in the rankings; I’m just saying we haven’t learned it yet. This is an elite attempt by the matchmakers to gatekeep her with Ketlen Vieira.

Vieira, in some ways, mentally embodies what I think of this division when I close my eyes. The Brazilian’s -0.99 SSR is poor. She’s only attempted 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes out of concern about endurance. Yet, she’s 9-5 in UFC and gave Kayla Harrison her toughest fight with the promotion. “Fenomeno” has a lot of skills; she just hasn’t been able to regularly channel like in a striking win over Holly Holm or a tapout of Sara McMann.

In this case, I don’t value Cavalcanti’s 88% takedown D whatsoever. The only woman she’s faced that averaged north of 0.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes was Julia Avila, a part-time fighter. There is absolutely a path to Cavalcanti stuffing takedowns and point fighting to the cards once again, but there’s also a path where Vieira looks -350 because she’s able to either ride her out for over 10 minutes in control time or find her first submission since 2017.

Vieira has fought too many elite fighters too closely to lay +140 to a fighter who — at any sort of competition level of note — might as well be making her UFC debut.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I have a hypothesis, Cavalcanti, a kickboxer, might be truly dreadful off her back, and we’ve yet to see it. I took small pokes at my favorite bet that never cashes: Ketlen Vieira by submission (+1200) — and early.

Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Gantt	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Minev	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Trey Ogden was a great first test for Tommy Gantt, but we’ll get a showcase instead after the veteran suffered an injury. It’ll be nice to see Gantt back in the cage, though.

Wrestling pedigrees in UFC can go several different directions, but Gantt’s is fairly undeniable. He was an All-American at NC State in Raleigh before a stint on the USA World Cup wrestling team. At 33, it’s better late than never for him after a first-round submission of Adam Livingston, which produced cartoonish numbers like 10.78 takedowns and 5.4 submission attempts secured per 15 minutes.

It’ll be interesting to see how Artur Minev does, as he’s ostensibly been thrown off the deep end. The Ukrainian has made waves in Fury FC at just 22, producing a highlight or two with his powerful hands. There’s simply limited footage of how his striking-centric matchups have gone on the regional scene to know how well he might defend takedowns here.

I find it interesting that this betting line is somewhat competitive after Gantt’s explosive effort on DWCS. I’ll be honest; I don’t love his archetype as an older, wrestling-oriented prospect, which leaves him vulnerable to all sorts of potential pitfalls, like energy management, damage tolerance, and submission danger at a higher level.

Minev won’t provide the latter, and he’s extremely inexperienced with the giant red flag of a majority decision just 10 months ago. Livingston seemed like a better UFC prospect to me, which opens the door to picking Gantt to win. It’s just tough to go all-in on a betting spot this ambiguous.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Ethyn Ewing might have scrambled our brains about these last-minute callups. Artur Minev has almost no grappling credentials on tape and enters on short notice. Is a picture with Yaroslav Amosov really worth that much? I’m stunned to see Gantt’s ITD prop (+140) so playable when I thought he quickly finished a better prospect on DWCS.

Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Tokkos	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Erslan	Eligible

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Ivan Erslan is 0-3 with the promotion but a moderate favorite at UFC Vegas 117. We are so back at the Apex, baby.

Erslan’s three initial opponents seemed tough at the time, and it’s only aged tougher when you consider the streaks that Ion Cutelaba, Navajo Stirling, and Jimmy Crute are riding into 2026. The Croatian is now fighting for his roster spot opposite Tuco Tokkos, with little idea of what he does well. His -2.46 SSR is extremely poor, and his 61% takedown D is mediocre when Crute tapped him (via an unorthodox choke) in his last round inside the octagon.

At the very least, Tokkos has gotten the monkey off his back. He drowned Junior Tafa via second-round submission, passing that infamous “chin check”. The Kill Cliff product was also a Navajo Stirling victim (-46 striking differential) and was bullied at his own game by Oumar Sy. Tokkos, oddly, also appeared on Road to UFC in 2022, failing to survive five minutes opposite multi-time UFC winner Zhang Mingyang.

I cannot get away from the frightening disposition that oddsmakers are giving the answer to the test here. Erslan hasn’t really had a redeeming moment in UFC, but he entered the promotion at 14-3 with 10 (T)KOs. Any opponent that he’s lost to would also have mopped Tokkos.

Erslan’s archetype is a bomber of a boxer who relies on frontrunning with forward pressure. Combined with the desperation of being 0-3 in UFC and the British underdog not carrying much power, I think that’s a nightmare matchup for Tokkos. Mingyang proved such.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My “DGAF” bet of the week was a full unit on Erslan’s R1 (T)KO. I generally think he’s a better version of Zhang Mingyang, who made it look easy. Tuco has gotten way, way too many points for a win over Junior Freaking Tafa.

Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams

Welterweight (170 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Veretennikov	49.45%	14.80%	5.84%	8.96%	34.65%
Williams	50.55%	21.81%	17.40%	4.42%	28.74%

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I love the idea of Khaos Williams. The power. The nickname. The style. It’s one of the coolest archetypes in UFC.

It’s also just probably not super effective. I’m pretty dumbfounded that Williams’ UFC record stands at 6-4 when you look at his peripherals, including division-low striking accuracy (39%) and defense (40%) for someone with at least 10 appearances. That’s really bad for a guy who has also struggled with takedown D (51%) in consecutive fights and has never landed a UFC takedown himself.

Andreas Gustafsson’s start-to-finish splattering in his last start aged immediately like milk when Rinat Fakhretdinov easily slimed Gustafsson in less than two minutes. Checking the chin is supposed to be Williams’ thing, no?

That probably leaves him in a boom-or-bust spot opposite a solid, unspectacular veteran like Nikolay Veretennikov. Veretennikov drew Niko Price earlier this year to bump his UFC record to 2-3, but Price and Francisco Prado (his other win) have a combined record of 2-11 since the start of 2022. The Kazak fighter trains with a great team at Kings MMA, but individual fight decisions have been costly, and he’s definitely not at his peak speed or durability at 36.

A few years ago, I’d have picked Veretennikov with great confidence. Now? Those two age-related concerns lean toward Williams’ most common win condition: an early (T)KO. However, after the Gustafsson result, I just don’t think there’s any sort of justification for backing the Detroit fighter at chalk.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is a weird betting line where I think my model is actually too generous to Williams’ chance to win a longer fight. Veretennikov has early (T)KO upside and decision equity; I think Williams has only the former. I played the Ukrainian’s moneyline (+125) and decision prop (+375), which is my model’s favorite look on the entire board this week.