UFC Winnipeg Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results

Though UFC Winnipeg’s talent pool isn’t sensational, “down weeks” being back on the road is a good sign that the sport is shedding more and more Apex cards every year.

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs. Malott, taking place at the Canada Life Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs. Malott Prelim Betting Picks and Props

Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Siraj	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Yannis	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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This is one of the lowest-level fights in UFC history. I’m sure of it.

Jamie Siraj will get the benefit of the doubt donning the Maple Leaf at UFC Winnipeg, and the Canadian is a serviceable regional grappler with enough boxing to get there. He gets to his takedown entries quickly, doesn’t settle on bottom, and has shown plenty of submission danger with 7 pro subs, giving him the advantage over John Yannis.

There’s also an on-paper reality of a regional loss to a 29-22 fighter wearing shorts from UFCStore.com. I don’t know how I can expect a deep run in a deep division after watching that play out in under 4 minutes.

Yannis, though, was a “break glass in case of emergency” replacement to put Austin Bashi’s derailed hype train back on the tracks. The Fury FC alum had a few knockouts with the Texas-based promotion, but we saw how quickly he was overwhelmed in grappling situations by Bashi, who secured a first-round choke.

This is a wrestler-versus-striker matchup as old as time, but Siraj’s boxing is at least competitive.

This betting line is wide because the Canadian will likely control where the fight takes place, and if he can get it to his office, Yannis has shown literally zero ability to survive in his pro career. However, his own chin concerns bring the total into play.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Yannis is a fish out of water on the mat, but his opponent going out in the first round against a regional bum might also show chin problems. I prefer under 2.5 rounds at -120 but also sprinkled the early Siraj sub.

John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Castaneda	Eligible
Vologdin	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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I see fighters like Mark Vologdin and wonder how much some of the others want it.

Vologdin is just 25 years old and, discouragingly, was a loser on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), but the improvement window is open. He’s officially listed as set up with Allstars in Sweden, which birthed Alexander Gustafsson, Khamzat Chimaev, and several others before their UFC debut. We’ve also seen him sparring with Merab. The problem is that his -3.20 striking success rate (SSR) and 57% takedown defense against a non-proven commodity on DWCS were awful. We’ll see how he fares against John Castaneda.

“Sexi Mexi” is a UFC stalwart with a defined ceiling. He’s battled weight issues despite an average frame for 135, and he’s really at his best when he chains his kickboxing to takedown attempts and pushes the pace. Shockingly, Castaneda attempted just one takedown against Chris Gutierrez in his last fight at 145 pounds, suggesting an injury, given that we’ve seen Gutierrez toppled by wrestlers.

Though the Russian is probably an ascending stock, Castaneda’s level of competition has included Gutierrez, Daniel Marcos, and Miles Johns — guys not out of place if they fought on the edge of the rankings. We’ve also seen DWCS fighters who performed well on DWCS completely bomb in the UFC. One with terrible peripherals is even more of a risk.

There’s a massive gap in experience and skill for such a tightly lined bout.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The market has completely flipped in Castaneda’s direction, but you’re placing a great deal of faith in Vologdin’s DWCS opponent to bet him here. Castaneda’s pace and pressure could lead to one of his best wins of his career.

JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Aldrich	31.37%	1.64%	0.96%	0.69%	29.73%
Horth	68.63%	22.19%	11.50%	10.69%	46.44%

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I’ve had a somewhat torturous betting history with JJ Aldrich as a “value underdog” in the model. It brought a rueful smile to my face to see her ceding a massive favored result to an opponent, indicating the model tweaks are working.

The algorithm doesn’t even account for “ring rust” when it’s been over 400 days since the Coloradan’s last appearance, too. The converted strawweight, in my opinion, just does not have a discernible offensive identity. Her -0.36 SSR just squeaked by a washed Andrea Lee in her last bout, and she’s 0-1 to submissions in UFC with pedestrian takedown D. I think many cling to her result against Gillian Robertson as a show of grappling prowess, but Robertson converted to a 115er for a reason.

Jamey-Lyn Horth is the opposite end of the size equation. Horth is massive for the weight class after a debut at women’s bantamweight, and there has been noticeable growth and evolution in her offensive output. She made Tereza Bleda, a big flyweight herself, quit in under four minutes after stuffing the takedowns, and that tight loss to Miranda Maverick seems pretty legitimate with hindsight.

Of course, you want to default to Canadians, as most are in favorable spots, but I also just see Aldrich as hypersensitive to her opponent’s size when Horth has plenty of it. Add in that Jamey-Lyn’s +1.13 SSR seems to be improving by the fight, and I do think the model is correct here — in what should obviously be a longer bout.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The “film bros” love Aldrich. I just don’t know what trait you hang your hat on at UFC Winnipeg. I goofed up the closing line value and played Horth at -205, so her current moneyline is a bargain.

Melissa Croden vs. Daria Zhelezniakova

Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Croden	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Zhelezniakova	Eligible

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In general, Daria Zhelezniakova is an ascending stock, but this is a lion’s den in Manitoba when she’s probably in a “sell” spot.

Zhelezniakova avenged a regional loss (by quick finish) to Melissa Mullins by stuffing 3 of 6 takedown attempts and limiting Mullins — a fish out of water at distance — to 2:55 in control time. It was a stunning improvement and shows the “Iron Lady” progressing through an improvement window, even though she’s already likely a top-15 striker in the division.

Melissa Croden is an interesting middle ground for a matchup between Mullins and Ailin Perez, who submitted Zhelezniakova quickly in September 2024. Croden showed that “dog” in her with a third-round stoppage of Tainara Lisboa, where she built throughout the fight, but Luana Santos proved her limitations off her back. Santos scored 9:21 in control time.

“Scare” is huge for this weight class, though. She eventually wore Lisboa out and finished her with ground-and-pound before the skill chasm against Santos was too much. I’m also leaning toward the view that Zhelezniakova’s last effort is more of an indictment of the part-time British fighter than a statement by the Russian.

Croden has yet to lose the distance differential in two fights against multi-time UFC winners. Considering she’s got the grappling and size edge here, she’ll almost certainly win if that’s the case once more.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Like Horth, here’s another Canadian WMMA product on the rise that will have the home crowd, but her moneyline has shrunken all week. Croden’s physicality could absolutely lead to a stoppage if she can end up in top position.

Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Boser	Eligible
Saricam	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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To this day, I have no idea why the UFC cut Tanner Boser from either the light heavyweight or heavyweight division.

Boser’s last fight in the UFC was a dominant effort over Aleksa Camur, where he had a +52 striking differential and held Camur against the cage for over five minutes. “Bulldozer” isn’t a great nickname when the Canadian’s one true weakness is one-shot power. From an efficiency perspective, he’s got a +1.95 SSR with sparkling striking accuracy (52%) and defense (58%). It’s led to three (T)KOs, too.

As the promotion continues to import Bellator castoffs at heavyweight, Gokhan Saricam is another logical choice. He went 5-2 with the extinct promotion and saw all 15 minutes in each of his last four fights. A bit like Boser, Saricam was being forced to defend takedowns rather than trade with fast hands but underwhelming power.

Neither of these fighters has ever shown chin lapses at distance. Therefore, this matchup of similar styles has one guy with bona fide UFC data and one without, yet the one with quality data is +135 and fighting in his home country.

I’m a Boser guy in any matchup where the takedown threat and size aren’t worries. That is the case at UFC Winnipeg.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: These two fighters are, stylistically, very similar, with quick hands and lacking one-shot power. This fight to go the distance (-120), being favored at heavyweight, is a clue. I trust Boser’s historical volume and efficiency to get the nod.

Julien LeBlanc vs. Robert Valentin

Middleweight (185 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
LeBlanc	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Valentin	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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“Robzilla” is in a featured prelim. This truly is an Apex-level card we sent north of the border.

Robert Valentin has been run over in three UFC appearances. Ryan Loder’s wrestling was too much in The Ultimate Fighter finale. Torrez Finney landed 8 takedowns and 13:16 in control time. Ateba Gautier badly hurt him for a 70-second (T)KO. The Swiss fighter’s striking (32%) and takedown (55%) defense are a mess.

Therefore, I think this fight is a Julien LeBlanc or pass. LeBlanc’s resume isn’t strong with a 0-1 record in LFA — by far the best promotion on his record. However, he did score a stoppage win over Darian Weeks, who went to decisions with Bryan Barbarena and Ian Machado Garry in the UFC.

LeBlanc’s grappling chops give him a path to dominate Valentin, given the way we saw Loder and Finney neutralize him. If there isn’t success scoring takedowns early, it is plausible that Valentin takes over the fight, but I’ve yet to see a glimmer of hope against fighters whose recent records aren’t perfect.

I mentioned earlier this year with Cody Brundage, Jose Medina, and others that outlierishly poor traits typically don’t just disappear for veterans in their 30s. The fact that Valentin is -154 over anyone the UFC deems is worth a roster tryout is a joke.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Valentin’s horrible striking defense can’t be favored in a UFC fight — especially when UFC just signed his Canadian opponent and gave him a featured prelim spot. I’m playing the early bonk, but any bet on the Canadian seems like a wise investment.