UFC BW Title Picture
The UFC recently faced a dilemma: should the next title shot go to Umar Nurmagomedov or Petr Yan? Now, the question has been answered. The UFC officially announced that Nurmagomedov will face Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight belt at UFC 311, and all signs point to a changing of the guard in January.
1. Merab’s Takedown Numbers
Merab Dvalishvili ranks second in UFC history for total takedowns with an incredible 85, just behind Georges St-Pierre. But here’s the catch—what does this high number really mean? Simply put, his opponents often get back to their feet. While Merab’s control is respectable, it’s far from the smothering dominance seen from Dagestani fighters like Umar Nurmagomedov himself. Against an elite grappler like Umar, Merab could be looking at his worst takedown success rate to date.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 02: (L-R) Umar Nurmagomedov of Russia punches Bekzat Almakhan of Kazakhstan in a bantamweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on March 02, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
2. Umar’s Grappling Advantage
Unlike Dvalishvili, Umar doesn’t just focus on takedowns—he actively hunts for submissions & damage. His grappling is sharper, more dynamic, and poses a serious threat to the champion. Dvalishvili, who is used to dictating the pace in wrestling exchanges, might find himself in uncharted waters when the tables are turned. Historically, Dvalishvili has rarely been threatened by submission attempts. The last time it happened—against Ricky Simón—he was caught in a guillotine and finished.
How will Merab react when Umar flips the script, taking him down and attacking with high-level submissions and ground & pound?
3. Umar Striking Advantage
While Umar’s boxing may not be on par with the UFC’s elite strikers, he compensates with exceptional timing and devastating kicks. His kicking game is so fluid that he uses his legs almost like a jab. Against a pressure-heavy fighter like Dvalishvili, front kicks to the body could disrupt his rhythm and drain his cardio.
Dvalishvili, on the other hand, strikes primarily to create chaos and set up his relentless pace. But this volume-heavy approach lacks precision and doesn’t pose the same threat that Umar’s calculated striking does.
4. The X-Factor: Merab’s Pace vs. Umar’s Efficiency
Dvalishvili’s relentless tempo is his greatest weapon. He’s arguably the most tireless athlete in UFC history, constantly pressuring, throwing strikes, and spamming takedown attempts. He will undoubtedly push Umar for the full 25 minutes, earning his nickname ‘The Machine’.
However, Umar’s timing and efficiency may prove to be the perfect counter. While Dvalishvili thrives on overwhelming his opponents, Umar’s ability to stay composed, pick his shots, and capitalize on openings could neutralize Dvalishvili’s frenetic style.
5. The Wear-and-Tear Factor
Dvalishvili’s road to the title has been grueling, filled with wars and tough opponents. At 34 years old, age is beginning to creep up on him, especially in a division known for speed and endurance. In contrast, Umar, 29, is entering his physical prime with no significant damage in his career. His path to the title has been far smoother, leaving him fresher and more prepared for this pivotal fight.
With a wider skill set, superior grappling, and a more efficient striking game, Umar Nurmagomedov has all the tools to dethrone Merab Dvalishvili. On January 11th, there’s a high probability that Russia will welcome its fourth UFC champion—and the third from Dagestan.
Stay tuned for a detailed breakdown of the fight as we approach UFC 311.