Value Too High On Carlos Prates?

Carlos Prates Overrated by Bettors?

By all accounts, the odds are surprisingly generous to Carlos Prates — sportsbooks are giving him a 46% chance against Ian Garry. But does that number really hold up under scrutiny?

Let’s break it down:

🔸 Experience Gap
Prates has only fought 4 times in the UFC, totaling less than 5 full rounds. That’s barely any cage time at the elite level. Despite his win streak, we actually know very little about him — he’s still a mystery.

🔸 No Real Grappling Test
Not a single one of Prates’ opponents was a strong wrestler, let alone a top-10 caliber grappler. We’re not even talking Belal Muhammad or Sean Brady level — even Ian Garry’s grappling would be a whole new problem for him.

🔸 Knockouts Are Great, But…
His knockout highlight reel is impressive, but we’ve seen this before — plenty of fighters look like killers until they face real competition. The only legit, durable guy Prates dropped was Li Jingliang. Neil Magny had already been knocked down three times before Prates got to him. Trevin Giles had been KO’d twice. Radtke was stopped on the regionals.

🔸 One-Trick Weapon
Prates’ only real threat is his left hand. That’s about it. But is that really enough to be nearly even with a well-rounded, smart, and durable fighter like Garry — someone who can grapple, manage distance, and take a clean shot?

🔸 Cardio Concerns
We know nothing about Prates’ gas tank. The guy smokes a pack of cigarettes a day. Can he really go five rounds at a high pace? There’s always the Ricardo Mayorga comparison, but even he would fade late — and he wasn’t dealing with takedowns.

🔸 Six Losses on the Record
And five of them came by finish — three by submission. Sure, Prates hasn’t lost in five years, and he’s clearly improved, but let’s not forget: the guys who beat him back then probably aren’t as good as Ian Machado Garry.

🔸 Ian Machado Garry is underrated
People forget Ian has already beaten knockout artists like MVP and Geoff Neal. He stays composed, doesn’t rush exchanges, and he’s more than willing to take the fight to the clinch or the ground to avoid unnecessary danger.

Bottom line: take away the “punchers chance” variable, and Prates’ odds don’t look nearly as good. Yes, Garry didn’t have a full camp, but he’s always in shape, always training, and never blows up in weight. That “short notice” angle is getting overstated.

What do you think? Can Prates pull off the upset, or is he getting too much credit?

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